It was a busy morning on November 29th, as a strong cold front swept through the region. These storms even resulted in two tornado warnings for portions of the Phoenix Valley (see radar loop below).

The first tornado warning was issued for a storm near Scottsdale Airport at 4:01 am and expired at 4:15 am. The second tornado warning of the morning was issued at 4:44 am for a storm over San Tan Village Mall. This storm, with radar-indicated rotation, continued moving northeast over Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. The tornado warning was canceled at 4:56 am.

So, the big question: Just how rare are tornado warnings in Phoenix?

To answer this question, we pulled archived weather alerts for Maricopa and Pinal Counties from 1986 to current, from the online database provided through Iowa State University.

From 1986 to present (33 years), only 23 tornado warnings have been issued for Maricopa County and 13 for Pinal County.

So the answer is: Fairly rare!

Below is a list of dates that tornado warnings have been issued for Maricopa and Pinal counties.

List for Maricopa County:
Aug 29, 1987
Nov 1, 1987
Sep 3, 1990
Feb 13, 1992
Jan 17, 1993 - two warnings issued
Jan 18, 1993
Mar 13, 1996
Aug 14, 1997
Sept 7, 2002 - two warnings issued
Sept 6, 2003
Jan 4, 2005 - two warnings issued
Jan 29, 2005
Jan 21, 2010 - three warnings issued
Sept 10, 2011
July 1, 2016
Sept 23, 2019
Nov 29, 2019 - two warnings issued

List for Pinal County:
Nov 18, 1986
Jan 18, 1993
Mar 7, 1994
Sept 4, 1994
Aug 14, 1997
Sep 12, 1997
July 6, 1999
Jan 21, 2010
Sep 10, 2011 - two warnings issued
Jul 14, 2017 - two warnings issued
Nov 29, 2019 - two warnings issued

It's official, at approximately 1:55 pm (on November 19th), Phoenix Sky Harbor measured 0.01" of rain! This tip of the rain gauge broke the 53-day long dry streak in Phoenix, as the last measurable rain at the airport was back on September 26th.

This dry streak is nowhere near the record set in 1972, which stands at 160 days. No rain was measured from December 30th, 1971 to June 6th, 1972.

With that said, we are still well below average when it comes to rainfall this year. As of this morning (before the rain), Sky Harbor was sitting at 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 3.18" below the average year-to-date total of 6.86". The good news, the storm system moving through the state right now should help put a dent in this deficit.

Temperatures on Sunday afternoon in Phoenix are not going to feel like it's the middle of November, but like the middle of October. The forecast high this afternoon in Phoenix is 87º. Not only is this forecast high 12º above average, it would also tie the record high for the day set in 2008.

The main reason for these warm temperatures the past few weeks is high pressure. Currently, high pressure is building into the Southwest US as the low-pressure system that brought some high clouds to the region the past few days drifts southward off the coast of Baja.

The good news, these temperatures won't last long. The low off the coast of Baja will slowly move northeast into Arizona late Monday into Tuesday as another storm system drops down into the region from the Pacific Northwest. These two storms will bring rain chances to the Valley of the Sun Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, along with much cooler temperatures. In fact, by Wednesday through next weekend, temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s!

Stay tuned for more information about the rain chances mentioned above. For now, if you like the warm weather, enjoy today and tomorrow!

It was a dry monsoon, and so far, a dry fall. Phoenix, as of November 15th, is sitting at 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 3.11" below average. Most locations across the high country of Arizona are also running below average for the year. This means one thing: expanding drought.

Severe drought now covers 45.56% of the state, which is a 6% increase from just last week.

Even though drought is increasing, it is still better compared to what we were seeing last year at this same time. In November 2018, 4.33% of the state was in Exceptional Drought with 8.27% in Extreme Drought.

It is looking like a pattern shift will be taking shape next week, which could bring beneficial rain to the state. One storm will certainly not end the drought; however, anything will help!

What a difference a year can make! If you remember back to just last year, Phoenix Sky Harbor measured 5.35" of rain in October. This total smashed the October rainfall record, with the old record being 4.40" in 1972. On the other hand, this year, Phoenix measured nothing.

So how rare is this? The short answer: it's not. Out of 124 years, Phoenix has recorded no measurable rain in October 26 times (21% of years). The average rainfall total for October is 0.59", which is the 4th driest month.

As of October 31, 2019, Phoenix has officially recorded 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 2.82" below average for this time of year. As can be seen, we certainly need rain; however, the latest trends are looking dry for at least the first half of November.

Phoenix Sky Harbor has recorded 29 days so far this year with a high of 110º or higher; this is now the 4th most Phoenix has recorded since records began in 1896.

So how has the number of 110º or higher days changed throughout this period of record?

For starters, in 1911 there were no 110º+ days, and in 2011 there were 33 days, which currently stands as the record. The current climatological 30-year average (1981-2010) is 18 days per year, but let's take a closer look at the average over time.

Examining the rolling 30-year average from 1896 to 2018, it's easy to see that it is going up. In 1925, the average was just five days per year, and now including this year, the average is 20 days. Even though we see an increasing number of 110º days, there is a piece of good news, and that is that the rate of increase has slowed (more text below graph).

Phoenix is in the midst of the fifth driest monsoon on record when looking at rain totals at Sky Harbor from June 15th through Aug 25th. The big question: do we have a chance of ending Monsoon 2019 on a wet note?

The average monsoon total for Phoenix is 2.71", meaning, to get to average, Sky Harbor would need to measure 2.44" of rain before the season ends on Sept 30th. Over the past 123 monsoons, there have only been 11 where 2.44" or more of rain has fallen between Aug 26th-Sept 30th (9% of monsoons).

Just looking at that fact, it's not hard to see that it will take quite a bit to get Monsoon 2019 to normal. But let's break down the numbers and run some different rain scenarios to see just how much (or little) rain we could see by the end of the season!

Average Scenario: First, since there are only 36 days left in Monsoon 2019, time is starting to run out. On average, Phoenix Sky Harbor picks up 0.81" of rain between Aug 26th - Sept 30th. Using just this average, it would put the Monsoon 2019 total at 1.08", which would be 1.63" below average. This total would also place Monsoon 2019 as the 14th driest monsoon on record.

Worst Scenario: There have been nine years in the past 123 monsoons where no rain has fallen from August 26th-Sept 30th. This would mean the Monsoon 2019 total would come in at 0.27", breaking the record for the driest monsoon. The record currently stands at 0.35" set in 1924.

Best Scenario: For those glass half full people, let's switch over to the best-case scenarios. We will start with the "absolute" best case, which is very unlikely to occur. The most amount of rain to fall from Aug 26th-Sept 30th was 5.41" in 1939, followed by 5.11" in 2014 (remember Hurricane Norbert?) If Monsoon 2019 followed in the footsteps of 1939, it would end up with 5.68" and come in as the 12th wettest monsoon on record. Again, the odds are slim, but what I'm saying is, "there is a chance!"

Now for the "middle" best case. Using the top 30 highest end of monsoon rainfall totals from Aug 26th-Sept 30th, the average rainfall comes in at 2.45". Using this average, Monsoon 2019 would come in at 2.72", which would be just 0.01" above average.

Finally, for the situation that is more likely to occur and is considered the "least" best case, we will take the driest 30 monsoons based on rainfall from June 15th-Aug 25th and examine how those monsoons ended. Using these years, the average rainfall to end the monsoon is 0.74", which would bring the Monsoon 2019 total to 1.01" (1.70" below average). Using the same thirty years, the most rainfall to fall between Aug 26th-Sept 30th was 2.15", with the least being 0.07". Using these two values would make the Monsoon 2019 total 2.42" or 0.34" respectively. Both totals are still below average, with the 0.34" coming in as the direst monsoon on record. Again, the current record stands at 0.35" set in 1924.

Overall, it's looking very likely that Monsoon 2019 will end well below average. The table below shows the top five driest monsoons on record based on rainfall from June 15th-Aug 25th (with 1914 and 1993 tying as the driest, and 1994 and 2019 tying as the 5th driest). The sad part of this, looking at the overall monsoon total the top four driest monsoons are on this list.