The latest drought numbers were released today (Nov 19th), and they are not good.

Currently, 32.8% of Arizona is in Exceptional Drought, which is the highest level of drought. Another 51.9% is classified as Extreme Drought. These are the worst drought numbers the state has seen since July 2002.

Currently, Phoenix Sky Harbor is sitting 2.27" below average for rainfall this year, but other locations are doing far worse. Tucson is 6.49" below average for the year (~38% of average), and Flagstaff is down 10.07"!

With La Nina in place, the latest long-term forecasts for this winter call for dry and warm conditions overall.

With a nearly nonexistent monsoon this year, it shouldn't come as too surprising that drought numbers are back on the rise across Arizona. Currently, 3% of the state is now in exceptional drought, which is the highest drought classification. Extreme drought covers another 67% of the state.

This is the first time since January 2019 that exceptional drought has been in Arizona. And further analysis shows that using the Drought Severity and Coverage Index, these are the worst drought conditions Arizona has seen since July 2018.

So any relief in sight?

Unfortunately, there is no rain forecast in the near term. Looking longer-term, with La Nina conditions expected through the winter, the Climate Prediction Center has a 40-50% chance of having below-average rainfall this winter.

With very dry conditions around the state, be sure to use extreme caution with any open flames or activities that may create sparks as fire danger remains elevated.

There is some excellent news when it comes to drought across Arizona: it's improving!

The latest drought monitor update shows 50.54 percent of the state is not in any drought classification. Another 22.84 percent of the state is "Abnormally Dry," which indicates an area that is experiencing dry conditions but is not yet in drought.

With that said, moderate to severe drought still exists in the north/northeast portion of the state, and the National Drought Mitigation Center explains, " In the Four Corners states, the map depiction strives to balance the effect of the recent precipitation with the failure of the monsoon."

This "balance" can be seen looking at the departure from average rainfall graph for Phoenix Sky Harbor (below). From June 15th through September 30th (the monsoon), Phoenix only recorded 0.66 inches of rain, making it the 5th driest on record. At the start of the season (June 15th), the Valley was only 0.19 inches below average for the year, and by the end (September 30th), the gauge was 2.24 inches below average.

The dry weather continued through October before a major storm system moved through the state November 19th - 21st, with a storm total in Phoenix of 0.84 inches. Another strong storm moved through the region on November 28th and 29th, with another 0.71 inches falling at the airport.

While this Fall rain has helped and drought conditions are improving, Phoenix is still sitting 2.26 inches below average for the year when it comes to rain.

Fingers crossed for a wet end to 2019 (there's a chance)!