How Rare Are Tornado Warnings in Phoenix?

- Posted in Weather Facts by

It was a busy morning on November 29th, as a strong cold front swept through the region. These storms even resulted in two tornado warnings for portions of the Phoenix Valley (see radar loop below).

The first tornado warning was issued for a storm near Scottsdale Airport at 4:01 am and expired at 4:15 am. The second tornado warning of the morning was issued at 4:44 am for a storm over San Tan Village Mall. This storm, with radar-indicated rotation, continued moving northeast over Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. The tornado warning was canceled at 4:56 am.

So, the big question: Just how rare are tornado warnings in Phoenix?

To answer this question, we pulled archived weather alerts for Maricopa and Pinal Counties from 1986 to current, from the online database provided through Iowa State University.

From 1986 to present (33 years), only 23 tornado warnings have been issued for Maricopa County and 13 for Pinal County.

So the answer is: Fairly rare!

Below is a list of dates that tornado warnings have been issued for Maricopa and Pinal counties.

List for Maricopa County:
Aug 29, 1987
Nov 1, 1987
Sep 3, 1990
Feb 13, 1992
Jan 17, 1993 - two warnings issued
Jan 18, 1993
Mar 13, 1996
Aug 14, 1997
Sept 7, 2002 - two warnings issued
Sept 6, 2003
Jan 4, 2005 - two warnings issued
Jan 29, 2005
Jan 21, 2010 - three warnings issued
Sept 10, 2011
July 1, 2016
Sept 23, 2019
Nov 29, 2019 - two warnings issued

List for Pinal County:
Nov 18, 1986
Jan 18, 1993
Mar 7, 1994
Sept 4, 1994
Aug 14, 1997
Sep 12, 1997
July 6, 1999
Jan 21, 2010
Sep 10, 2011 - two warnings issued
Jul 14, 2017 - two warnings issued
Nov 29, 2019 - two warnings issued

Phoenix Dry Streak Is Over!

- Posted in Weather Facts by

It's official, at approximately 1:55 pm (on November 19th), Phoenix Sky Harbor measured 0.01" of rain! This tip of the rain gauge broke the 53-day long dry streak in Phoenix, as the last measurable rain at the airport was back on September 26th.

This dry streak is nowhere near the record set in 1972, which stands at 160 days. No rain was measured from December 30th, 1971 to June 6th, 1972.

With that said, we are still well below average when it comes to rainfall this year. As of this morning (before the rain), Sky Harbor was sitting at 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 3.18" below the average year-to-date total of 6.86". The good news, the storm system moving through the state right now should help put a dent in this deficit.

Phoenix: Record High Temperatures Sunday?

- Posted in Weather Forecast by

Temperatures on Sunday afternoon in Phoenix are not going to feel like it's the middle of November, but like the middle of October. The forecast high this afternoon in Phoenix is 87º. Not only is this forecast high 12º above average, it would also tie the record high for the day set in 2008.

The main reason for these warm temperatures the past few weeks is high pressure. Currently, high pressure is building into the Southwest US as the low-pressure system that brought some high clouds to the region the past few days drifts southward off the coast of Baja.

The good news, these temperatures won't last long. The low off the coast of Baja will slowly move northeast into Arizona late Monday into Tuesday as another storm system drops down into the region from the Pacific Northwest. These two storms will bring rain chances to the Valley of the Sun Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, along with much cooler temperatures. In fact, by Wednesday through next weekend, temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s!

Stay tuned for more information about the rain chances mentioned above. For now, if you like the warm weather, enjoy today and tomorrow!

Arizona Drought Update: November 2019

- Posted in Drought by

It was a dry monsoon, and so far, a dry fall. Phoenix, as of November 15th, is sitting at 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 3.11" below average. Most locations across the high country of Arizona are also running below average for the year. This means one thing: expanding drought.

Severe drought now covers 45.56% of the state, which is a 6% increase from just last week.

Even though drought is increasing, it is still better compared to what we were seeing last year at this same time. In November 2018, 4.33% of the state was in Exceptional Drought with 8.27% in Extreme Drought.

It is looking like a pattern shift will be taking shape next week, which could bring beneficial rain to the state. One storm will certainly not end the drought; however, anything will help!

October 2019: No rain in Phoenix

- Posted in Weather Facts by

What a difference a year can make! If you remember back to just last year, Phoenix Sky Harbor measured 5.35" of rain in October. This total smashed the October rainfall record, with the old record being 4.40" in 1972. On the other hand, this year, Phoenix measured nothing.

So how rare is this? The short answer: it's not. Out of 124 years, Phoenix has recorded no measurable rain in October 26 times (21% of years). The average rainfall total for October is 0.59", which is the 4th driest month.

As of October 31, 2019, Phoenix has officially recorded 3.68" of rain for the year, which is 2.82" below average for this time of year. As can be seen, we certainly need rain; however, the latest trends are looking dry for at least the first half of November.